Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a89…c186 other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2878 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,110per market
Trades / day2878.0pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$13
other 44% +$10
world 10% +$40
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2878 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 21% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 21% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 21% 3% -9.4%
all 33 +1.5% -8.2% 21% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2878.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 3% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$611) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
47.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$0 · ×70.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.71 per $1 lost it wins $24.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$1,110
Trades / day2878.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,372 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $207 +$20 +10%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $18,845 +$2 +0%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $758 +$11 +2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $701 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $358 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $423 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $129 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,001 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,006 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $57 +$20 +35%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,213 +$13 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,387 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $611 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $20 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $19 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $12 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 1m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 3m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $18 4m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $18 4m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 6m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 8m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 8m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $19 8m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $19 8m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 14m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $7 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $8 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $4 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.62 · official $166.62 (match) · 3500 history records