Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a85…69b1 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day194.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 41% -23.1%
≤30d 54 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 41% -23.1%
≤90d 54 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 41% -23.1%
all 54 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 41% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 41% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 35% -30.4%
15% -40.2% 26% -37.1%
20% -46.1% 17% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day194.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 28¢ 62¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+119%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$7 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.40 · official $4.40 (match) · 215 history records