Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a84…f2ae other 34 markets active 19h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,255 (-10%) realized −$3,686 · open +$431
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$21,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,013
7 days−$3,648
14 days−$3,648
30 days−$3,648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$909
sports 16% −$1,705
politics 12% −$804
crypto 3% +$324
world 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 52% -42.1%
≤30d 25 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 52% -42.1%
≤90d 25 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 52% -42.1%
all 25 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 52% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 52% -42.1%
10% -23.5% 52% -47.7%
15% -30.9% 40% -52.7%
20% -37.7% 32% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$392 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$21,320
Realized−$3,686
Unrealized+$431
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage63d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4,407 $4,705 +$298 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $4,542 $3,590 −$952 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2,929 $2,787 −$143 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,785 $2,787 +$1,001 (+56%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2,281 $2,501 +$220 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,229 $1,724 −$505 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,374 $1,594 +$221 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $855 $1,179 +$324 (+38%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $487 $454 −$33 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $251 −$123 -49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $806 −$798 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $3,630 −$804 -22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $319 −$318 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,011 −$2,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $457 −$450 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $503 −$12 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,007 +$295 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$200 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $25 +$8 +33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$102 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $103 +$94 +91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $125 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $600 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $122 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $73 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 72¢ $71 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $126 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $206 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 24h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $986 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $319 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 37h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2,011 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $457 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $20 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $20 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $491 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $503 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $1,302 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $503 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $1,007 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $304 43h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 43h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 43h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $73 44h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $93 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,320.02 · official $21,320.02 (match) · 148 history records