Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a83…497d weather 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$80 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%397W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$69
14 days+$70
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$89
crypto 15% −$50
sports 3% −$109
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +12.4% +1.7% 62% 26% -4.6%
≤30d 195 +4.1% -5.8% 86% 9% -7.6%
≤90d 442 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 4% -10.6%
all 445 +0.3% -9.3% 89% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -10.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.8%
20% -33.1% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses397 / 48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)445 / 449
History coverage110d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+242%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $83 +$11 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $153 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $183 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$13 +498%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$8 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$14 +967%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $95 52m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $67 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $60 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $89 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $80 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $169 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $47 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.30 · official $169.30 (match) · 1159 history records