Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7f…21ee other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$38
politics 26% −$15
sports 22% −$15
crypto 7% −$5
economics 4% −$3
culture 4% −$4
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$3
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -1.1% -10.5% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 143 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage106d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 92¢ 92¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $289 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $139 −$2 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $51 −$13 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $340 +$5 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $43 −$4 -9%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $349 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $302 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $95 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $54 49m
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 7h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $67 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $67 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 25h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 25h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 32h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 33h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 41h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 41h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $56 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.41 · official $53.41 (match) · 550 history records