Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a7f…079b
weather · 484 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,957 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,095 · open +$138
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,949
Realized−$3,095
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses458 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)482 / 484
History coverage66d
Avg bet$591
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 482 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$351
7 days−$79
14 days−$2,336
30 days−$2,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $1,095 $1,172 +$77 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $716 $777 +$61 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $572 +$97 +17%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,283 −$461 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $598 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $578 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $576 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $578 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,166 +$42 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $484 +$20 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $956 +$10 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $198 +$17 +8%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,118 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $229 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,209 +$82 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $414 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $268 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $449 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $441 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $956 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $569 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $740 −$469 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $669 −$432 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $51 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $909 +$91 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,031 +$99 +10%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $494 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 69% −$3,765
other 30% +$742
politics 1% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $357 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $183 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $396 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $61 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $670 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $102 1h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 96¢ $47 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $44 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $115 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $141 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $163 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $93 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $86 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $12 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $11 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $10 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $29 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $305 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $319 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,283 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $42 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $491 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $77 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $598 38h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 39h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $583 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.5% -8.2% 97% 3% -10.0%
≤30d 231 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 2% -11.5%
≤90d 482 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 2% -10.5%
all 482 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 2% -10.5%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,948.72 · official $1,948.72 (match) · 3500 history records