Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7c…eab7 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12,087 (-19%) realized −$11,082 · open −$1,005
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%50W / 34L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$740per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 197d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$2,958
other 25% +$1,238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.6% +6.4% 20% 20% +19.4%
≤30d 5 +17.6% +6.4% 20% 20% +19.4%
≤90d 21 -28.7% -35.5% 24% 24% -24.3%
all 84 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 58% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 58% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 52% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 33% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,035) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$461 vs −$699 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$1,143
Realized−$11,082
Unrealized−$1,005
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses50 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage197d
Avg bet$740
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 31¢ 16¢ $2,148 $1,143 −$1,005 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,317 +$11,310 +488%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $920 −$870 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,775 −$2,775 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,314 −$3,314 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,883 −$1,883 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 19 $200 +$263 +132%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $200 −$196 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $139 −$137 -98%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Apr 13 $153 +$196 +128%
76ers vs. Lakers Apr 10 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Apr 10 $536 −$536 -100%
Hornets vs. Rockets Apr 10 $321 −$321 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Apr 10 $538 −$198 -37%
Clippers vs. Lakers Apr 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Apr 10 $433 −$433 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $1,664 −$1,664 -100%
Nets vs. Magic Apr 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Apr 10 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Apr 10 $122 +$150 +123%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 09 $120 +$76 +63%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs paiN Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Sta Mar 09 $3,381 −$66 -2%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia Mar 06 $200 −$109 -54%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group S Feb 28 $85 −$2 -2%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $525 +$448 +85%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 15 $96 +$43 +45%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Feb 12 $540 +$95 +18%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 12 $1,462 +$657 +45%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 09 $61 +$166 +270%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 09 $275 −$275 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Feb 08 $102 +$24 +24%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $287 +$255 +89%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $570 +$244 +43%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Feb 07 $222 −$222 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $274 +$106 +39%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 07 $391 +$440 +113%
Magic vs. Thunder Feb 04 $418 +$170 +41%
Lakers vs. Nets Feb 04 $223 +$70 +31%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $960 +$286 +30%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 30 $93 +$28 +30%
Nets vs. Suns Jan 30 $141 +$42 +30%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jan 27 $1,112 +$447 +40%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 26 $286 +$224 +78%
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jan 25 $766 +$312 +41%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jan 25 $185 −$185 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jan 25 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 23 $737 +$233 +32%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 20 $545 +$268 +49%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Jan 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jan 17 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 31¢ $1,560 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $68 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $481 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $45 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $44 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $13 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $13 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $9 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $16 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $90 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $270 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $112 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,143.15 · official $1,143.15 (match) · 324 history records