Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7c…d7b8 weather 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$901 (+1%) realized +$934 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate72%321W / 126L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$552
14 days+$1,342
30 days+$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$757
sports 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +2.7% -7.1% 63% 32% -2.0%
≤30d 343 -3.1% -12.4% 75% 19% -8.4%
≤90d 447 -7.1% -16.0% 72% 19% -8.5%
all 447 -7.1% -16.0% 72% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 19% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 13% -17.3%
15% -31.3% 10% -25.3%
20% -38.1% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized+$934
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses321 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)447 / 453
History coverage55d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $199 $203 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $181 $185 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? No 70¢ 28¢ $67 $26 −$41 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 9¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $230 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 +$76 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $190 +$85 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 −$36 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 −$84 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 −$8 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $326 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $349 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $282 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 −$62 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $301 −$18 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$55 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 +$12 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$40 +404%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$112 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $486 +$194 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $439 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $144 +$17 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $272 +$32 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $631 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$12 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $68 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $164 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $181 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $26 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $32 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $33 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $86 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $48 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $48 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $31 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.64 · official $454.64 (match) · 2174 history records