Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7b…fdd1 other 1262 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$883 (-2%) realized −$985 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%557W / 528L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$4,560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,009
7 days−$4,820
14 days−$4,806
30 days−$3,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$160
sports 12% −$153
crypto 8% −$688
world 2% +$118
politics 1% −$32
economics 0% +$22
tech 0% +$9
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -34.2% -40.5% 21% 20% -73.5%
≤30d 112 -20.0% -27.7% 34% 33% -41.6%
≤90d 235 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 41% -28.1%
all 1085 -3.8% -13.0% 51% 50% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -11.4%
10% -21.3% 46% -19.9%
15% -28.9% 39% -27.6%
20% -35.9% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$4,560
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses557 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions176
Markets (closed)1085 / 1262
History coverage373d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 176 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 73¢ 99¢ $241 $326 +$85 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $241 $267 +$26 (+11%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $160 $223 +$63 (+39%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 58¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 57¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-19%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 89¢ $140 $157 +$17 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $190 $148 −$42 (-22%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $130 $123 −$7 (-6%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 321 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$23 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$61 +43%
Will PSG win on 2025-08-13? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-07? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-31? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-30? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $212 −$119 -56%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? Jun 17 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-31? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $324 −$256 -79%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $10 −$8 -81%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$15 +61%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,560.27 · official $4,560.34 (match) · 2804 history records