Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5a7a…1f18 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 648d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%87W / 55L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$79
sports 24% −$9
other 14% +$4
crypto 3% +$13
world 1% +$1
economics 0% +$9
tech 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.3% -5.7% 46% 38% -9.8%
≤30d 14 +3.9% -6.0% 43% 36% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 37% -9.6%
all 142 -8.2% -17.0% 61% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 30% -9.6%
10% -24.9% 23% -18.2%
15% -32.2% 18% -26.1%
20% -38.8% 16% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

648d coverage
Net worth$3,702
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses87 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)142 / 151
History coverage648d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,800 $1,799 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $929 $930 +$1 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $900 $900 −$1 (-0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Maddison Inglis 53¢ 54¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Ella McDonald 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 57¢ 51¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $2,565 −$5 -0%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,523 −$23 -1%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 22 $15 +$11 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 22 $18 +$10 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $14 +$21 +146%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $5,919 −$14 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $16 +$10 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron Jun 20 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $13,305 −$6 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $8,507 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 May 23 $12 +$12 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 May 23 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,030 −$5 -0%
Istanbul: Daniel Michalski vs Benjamin Hassan May 21 $14 +$2 +17%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi May 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 21 $15 +$10 +67%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines May 20 $14 +$12 +86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Hersonissos 2: Lorenzo Giustino vs Paul Jubb Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Wizards Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 19 $25 $0 +0%
Mobis Phoebus vs. Seoul Thunders Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Seoul Knights vs. Wonju DB Promy Jan 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? Jan 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Jan 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jan 13 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 13 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $43 43m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $57 46m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $311 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $400 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Maddison Inglis 53¢ $24 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Ella McDonald 42¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Greet Minnen vs Fiona Ferro AND Wimbledo BUY 68¢ $15 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $992 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1,803 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $2,004 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $402 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $22 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $141 7h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $17 7h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $10 10h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $48 12h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $39 12h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $134 14h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $2,500 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 65¢ $20 24h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $2,523 24h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $1,656 24h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $45 29h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 31h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $66 36h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $45 37h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $54 38h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 38h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $22 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,702.08 · official $3,717.08 (match) · 576 history records