Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7a…1955 other 32 markets active 24h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -98% what you keep after slip
Net edge-98%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$192
crypto 7% $0
sports 7% −$1
weather 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -97.4% -97.6% 0% 0% -98.0%
≤30d 71 -97.4% -97.6% 0% 0% -98.0%
≤90d 77 -97.6% -97.8% 0% 0% -99.3%
all 77 -97.6% -97.8% 0% 0% -99.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.8% 0% -99.3%
10% -98.0% 0% -99.4%
15% -98.2% 0% -99.5%
20% -98.4% 0% -99.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -98% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)77 / 32
History coverage67d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 17¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C or below on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Ira BUY 13¢ $5 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND F BUY 3¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Port BUY 15¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 5¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Qata BUY 14¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $1 5d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $2 5d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 22¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 BUY 5¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 47d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.63 · official $50.65 · 107 history records