Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5A 0x5a78…4ae1 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (493 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,360 (+59%) realized +$4,365 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%191W / 151L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day492.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (493 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 342 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 45% -5.6%
≤30d 342 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 342 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 45% -5.6%
all 342 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 45% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover492.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 45% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 34% -14.6%
15% -27.8% 22% -22.8%
20% -34.9% 14% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$4,365
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses191 / 151
Open positions2
Markets (closed)342 / 344
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day492.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 47¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$29 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$21 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.85 · official $6.85 (match) · 3500 history records