Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a74…4af8 finance 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$644 (-1%) realized −$497 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,457per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$347
30 days−$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$124
finance 23% −$546
economics 8% −$147
sports 2% +$2
politics 0% −$21
other 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 18% -10.6%
all 17 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 18% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 18% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 12% -19.2%
15% -26.0% 12% -27.0%
20% -33.2% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,259) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$54 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,582
Realized−$497
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage58d
Avg bet$3,457
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $1,392 $1,562 +$170 (+12%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 45¢ 40¢ $1,167 $1,020 −$147 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $4,080 −$347 -8%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 08 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 05 $1,500 −$30 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 03 $1,259 −$58 -5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 29 $20 $0 -2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $119 −$23 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 25 $7,777 −$112 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 20 $40,771 −$97 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 05 $522 −$26 -5%
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? May 04 $7 −$1 -11%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 02 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 02 $4 $0 +11%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 02 $3 +$2 +54%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 02 $113 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 25 $51 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $731 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $6 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $13 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $13 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $134 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $134 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $300 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $300 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $42 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $42 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $95 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $95 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $323 12h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $352 12h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $97 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $219 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $221 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $113 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $254 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $254 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 38¢ $242 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,059 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 18¢ $488 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 65¢ $143 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 35¢ $350 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 65¢ $255 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY Yes 64¢ $70 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,581.61 · official $2,581.61 (match) · 371 history records