Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a72…f409 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$680 (+7%) realized +$835 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day71.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$1,226
other 11% +$54
sports 1% −$100
world 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +24.3% +12.5% 65% 58% +4.2%
≤30d 26 +24.3% +12.5% 65% 58% +4.2%
≤90d 26 +24.3% +12.5% 65% 58% +4.2%
all 26 +24.3% +12.5% 65% 58% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 58% +4.2%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 46% -5.7%
15% -8.1% 27% -14.9%
20% -17.1% 15% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$134 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$835
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day71.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 48¢ $400 $250 −$150 (-37%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $513 +$281 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,394 +$296 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $617 +$416 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $620 +$133 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $511 +$211 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $306 +$103 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $305 +$88 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $255 +$86 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $429 −$142 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $403 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $304 +$72 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$107 +52%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$449 +874%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $435 −$66 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $230 +$93 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $188 +$47 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $528 +$57 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $127 +$47 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$91 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $512 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.64 · official $394.64 (match) · 156 history records