Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a6f…ce03 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-21%) realized −$51 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%38W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$51
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% −$57
crypto 18% −$6
world 14% −$5
other 14% −$4
sports 10% −$19
politics 7% +$27
tech 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -18.9% -26.6% 41% 22% -25.5%
≤30d 110 -5.1% -14.1% 35% 24% -32.1%
≤90d 110 -5.1% -14.1% 35% 24% -32.1%
all 110 -5.1% -14.1% 35% 24% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 24% -32.1%
10% -22.4% 16% -38.6%
15% -29.9% 14% -44.5%
20% -36.7% 11% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)110 / 123
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market clos Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -19%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +107%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -73%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1 $0 +21%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $3 $0 -6%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 +$13 +1249%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 +$15 +1419%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 44¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 55¢ $1 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 24h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $2 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 47h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market clos SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 4d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market clos BUY Yes $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.30 · official $8.30 · 340 history records