Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a6e…430f other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-5%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$10
sports 18% −$22
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -43.4% -48.8% 36% 36% -27.4%
≤30d 11 -43.4% -48.8% 36% 36% -27.4%
≤90d 11 -43.4% -48.8% 36% 36% -27.4%
all 11 -43.4% -48.8% 36% 36% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 36% -27.4%
10% -53.7% 36% -34.3%
15% -58.2% 27% -40.7%
20% -62.3% 18% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +55%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.00 · official $249.00 (match) · 29 history records