Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a6b…1a3e
sports · 89 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$1,493 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$344 · open +$970
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,659
Realized+$344
Unrealized+$970
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses48 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$381
Open positions8
Markets (closed)81 / 89
History coverage594d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 8 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,796
7 days−$815
14 days−$815
30 days−$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 38¢ 100¢ $310 $812 +$503 (+162%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 32¢ 100¢ $160 $500 +$340 (+212%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 27¢ $193 $349 +$156 (+81%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 28¢ $490 $285 −$205 (-42%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $250 $228 −$22 (-9%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $80 $200 +$120 (+150%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Spirit 46¢ 100¢ $69 $149 +$80 (+116%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 53¢ 52¢ $138 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 0¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $493 $0 −$493 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $472 $0 −$472 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 29¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 52¢ 0¢ $390 $0 −$390 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 45¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 49¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 46¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 24¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $525 $0 −$525 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 76¢ 0¢ $356 $0 −$356 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $421 +$105 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,383 +$117 +8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $532 −$525 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $108 +$92 +85%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $285 +$115 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $745 +$229 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1,415 +$526 +37%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $141 −$96 -68%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $147 −$145 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $649 +$327 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $396 −$390 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $369 +$231 +63%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $817 −$493 -60%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $422 +$178 +42%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $557 −$10 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $274 +$8 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $666 −$514 -77%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $239 −$235 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $328 −$322 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $154 +$246 +160%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $765 +$235 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $297 −$295 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $586 −$450 -77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $257 +$221 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,130 +$367 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $267 −$87 -33%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $353 +$147 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $97 +$103 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $149 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $456 +$44 +10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $348 +$252 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $234 +$266 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $334 −$214 -64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $984 −$334 -34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $315 −$315 -100%
Penn State vs. UCLA Jun 12 $405 −$405 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $306 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $630 +$156 +25%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $597 +$403 +67%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $422 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $488 +$281 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,100 +$850 +77%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $627 −$284 -45%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1,463 −$438 -30%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jan 18 $130 +$231 +178%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Jan 18 $360 +$640 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$1,601
other 2% −$505
world 1% +$156
crypto 1% +$11
politics 1% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $70 34m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $81 35m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 39m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 35¢ $172 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $135 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $497 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $2 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 32¢ $102 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 32¢ $63 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 39¢ $115 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $327 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 52¢ $532 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $407 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 64¢ $318 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $43 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $244 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $290 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $1,383 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 66¢ $59 10h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 66¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 66¢ $2 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $108 10h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $139 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -10.8% -19.3% 52% 44% -12.2%
≤30d 48 -10.8% -19.3% 52% 44% -12.2%
≤90d 48 -10.8% -19.3% 52% 44% -12.2%
all 81 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 48% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 48% -8.0%
10% -17.6% 46% -16.8%
15% -25.5% 38% -24.8%
20% -32.8% 28% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,658.78 · official $2,657.98 (match) · 450 history records