Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a6b…68a0 sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$778 (-8%) realized −$775 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%77W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$572
other 9% −$337
world 0% +$10
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.5% -41.6% 17% 17% -66.7%
≤30d 15 -74.2% -76.7% 7% 7% -85.8%
≤90d 184 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 41% -16.9%
all 184 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 41% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 41% -16.9%
10% -29.4% 40% -24.8%
15% -36.2% 36% -32.1%
20% -42.5% 31% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$44 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$775
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses77 / 107
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage52d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 57¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $133 −$78 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 +$33 +246%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $46 −$45 -99%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $66 −$65 -98%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 25 $33 −$32 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $45 −$44 -99%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia May 18 $22 −$22 -98%
World Championships: Canada vs. Denmark May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
World Championships: Finland vs. USA May 18 $33 −$33 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $91 −$89 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 18 $69 +$22 +32%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $54 +$14 +26%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $15 +$14 +89%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 May 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 May 16 $135 −$134 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $45 +$91 +203%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $193 −$191 -99%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $140 +$53 +38%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $99 +$41 +42%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 15 $54 −$53 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) May 15 $131 +$22 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $87 +$44 +51%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $43 +$44 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 May 14 $199 −$107 -54%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 14 $144 −$142 -99%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 14 $232 +$110 +48%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Daniel Galan May 14 $16 −$5 -30%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $90 +$121 +134%
FC Hradec Králové vs. FC Slovan Liberec: O/U 2.5 May 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $222 −$219 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $40 +$53 +134%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 12 $40 −$39 -98%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 12 $241 +$21 +8%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 12 $107 +$82 +76%
AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 1.5 May 12 $87 −$87 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $22 +$44 +197%
FC Zlín vs. FK Teplice: O/U 2.5 May 12 $70 +$93 +133%
Will FC Zlín win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $55 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $55 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $133 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $22 38h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $46 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $46 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $13 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $46 5d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 17¢ $11 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $64 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 17d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway BUY Czechia 42¢ $33 22d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $45 28d
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia BUY Sweden 50¢ $22 29d
World Championships: Canada vs. Denmark BUY Denmark 12¢ $10 29d
World Championships: Finland vs. USA BUY USA 36¢ $33 29d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $91 29d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 30d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $69 30d
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 30d
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $54 30d
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 30d
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 30d
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $15 30d
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 30d
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 30d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 30d
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $14 30d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.54 · official $50.55 (match) · 296 history records