Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a69…148c other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$383 (+0%) realized +$383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,461per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$32
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$4
politics 37% −$65
sports 10% +$429
economics 5% −$8
world 4% −$6
crypto 1% +$3
finance 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -5.2% -14.2% 9% 1% -9.4%
all 91 -1.8% -11.2% 13% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 5% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 4% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$6 · ×11.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1,461
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $874 $874 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,932 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,375 −$5 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,253 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,733 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,714 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,083 −$3 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $395 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 04 $768 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,368 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,658 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $2,315 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $3,156 −$4 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 02 $1,154 +$3 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,700 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3,419 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,239 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $6,649 −$7 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $4,338 −$4 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $3,020 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,715 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $345 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $329 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $330 5h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $305 8h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $306 9h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $874 31h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,630 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,632 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,315 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,682 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,684 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,621 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,623 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,730 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,733 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,350 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,611 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,613 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,362 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,364 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.37 · official $874.37 (match) · 277 history records