Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a68…13f0 weather 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$429 (-4%) realized −$430 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%33W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$237
14 days−$457
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$32
politics 26% −$13
weather 24% −$455
sports 5% $0
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -14.2% -22.3% 70% 30% -21.3%
≤30d 89 -20.5% -28.1% 36% 17% -14.7%
≤90d 119 -17.6% -25.4% 28% 13% -13.3%
all 121 -18.0% -25.8% 27% 12% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 12% -13.4%
10% -32.9% 8% -21.7%
15% -39.4% 4% -29.3%
20% -45.3% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses33 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)121 / 128
History coverage245d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 96¢ 94¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? No 80¢ 70¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? No 67¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$7 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$8 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$9 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$12 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 +$21 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $459 −$441 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $522 +$220 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $131 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$11 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 −$28 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$18 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $87 −$87 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $17 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $109 −$29 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $74 −$64 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $119 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $106 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $34 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.10 · official $59.47 (match) · 1001 history records