Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a67…57ba other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+73%) realized +$41 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$35
other 45% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+91.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +111.3% +91.2% 35% 35% +58.5%
≤30d 17 +111.3% +91.2% 35% 35% +58.5%
≤90d 17 +111.3% +91.2% 35% 35% +58.5%
all 17 +111.3% +91.2% 35% 35% +58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.2% 35% +58.5%
10% +72.9% 35% +43.4%
15% +56.2% 35% +29.5%
20% +40.9% 29% +16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +152% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$16 +1604%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +490%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +149%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$19 +383%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 55m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 56m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 30h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 34h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 44h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 45h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 46h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 46h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 46h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.62 · official $6.31 (match) · 26 history records