Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a66…9051
politics · 207 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$20,178 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,114 · open −$63
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$783
Realized−$20,114
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses68 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)204 / 207
Avg bet$710
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 3 History 204 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$833
14 days+$700
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 41¢ 42¢ $350 $363 +$13 (+4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 26¢ 22¢ $260 $218 −$42 (-16%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $237 $203 −$34 (-14%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 48¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 6¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? No 16¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Pulyaev 12¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 8¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during Iowa speech? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $744 $0 −$744 (-100%)
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? No 9¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Dana White" during Iowa speech? No 62¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Joaquin Buckley 60¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Will EA say "Player Engagement" during earnings call? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will EA say "Apex Legends" during earnings call? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will Megabonk win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $514 $0 −$514 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Stupid" during Iowa speech? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? No 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $145 +$114 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $28 −$26 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $254 +$237 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $204 +$411 +201%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $102 +$98 +97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $203 +$175 +86%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $572 −$308 -54%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $50 −$49 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $152 −$150 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $179 −$177 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $85 +$9 +11%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 03 $744 −$744 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $331 −$55 -17%
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? Jan 31 $40 −$11 -26%
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call? Jan 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will EA say "Apex Legends" during earnings call? Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will EA say "Player Engagement" during earnings call? Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call? Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during remarks on January 28? Jan 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "Bedrock" during Iowa speech? Jan 28 $40 +$20 +49%
UFC 324: Johnson vs. Hernandez (Lightweight, Prelims) Jan 28 $427 −$77 -18%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $357 −$357 -100%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $500 +$257 +51%
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $174 −$174 -100%
UFC 324: Turcios vs. Smotherman (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $249 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Jan 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech? Jan 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I Jan 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Stupid" during Iowa speech? Jan 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Dana White" during Iowa speech? Jan 24 $37 −$37 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $76 −$4 -5%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 14 $400 −$6 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jan 14 $300 +$72 +24%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will The Last of Us: Part II Remastered win Outstanding Story-Rich Gam Jan 04 $500 +$7 +1%
Will Megabonk win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards? Jan 02 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 30 $4 +$59 +1322%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,100 +$440 +40%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 21 $2,130 −$1,120 -53%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Dec 17 $4,863 −$2,578 -53%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Dec 12 $4,894 −$3,184 -65%
Will Pennsylvania be the closest state? Dec 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% −$13,973
sports 21% +$1,117
crypto 17% −$1,133
other 15% −$1,870
world 11% −$4,366
economics 0% +$25
tech 0% +$123
finance 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $91 23h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $167 2d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $145 4d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 6¢ $28 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $356 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 26¢ $266 4d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tom Nolan 43¢ $102 5d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tom Nolan 26¢ $102 5d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Édgar Cháirez 50¢ $102 5d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $254 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $203 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $264 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $114 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $208 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $42 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $208 9d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 8¢ $50 19d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 48¢ $152 26d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 23¢ $10 33d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 1¢ $5 33d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 23¢ $31 33d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 66¢ $169 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $85 47d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 59d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $400 63d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes 0¢ $121 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +61.7% +46.3% 67% 67% +71.6%
≤30d 10 +20.3% +8.8% 50% 50% +14.3%
≤90d 14 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 43% -14.7%
all 204 -18.8% -26.5% 33% 31% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 31% -22.0%
10% -33.6% 27% -29.4%
15% -40.0% 22% -36.3%
20% -45.9% 18% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.25 · official $783.25 (match) · 549 history records