Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5A 0x5a65…e883 sports 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$645 (+0%) realized +$646 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate70%203W / 88L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,686per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,647
7 days−$8
14 days+$376
30 days+$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,997
other 10% +$2,512
politics 1% −$791
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.3% -9.2% 65% 46% -9.5%
≤30d 72 +0.1% -9.5% 64% 44% -9.1%
≤90d 72 +0.1% -9.5% 64% 44% -9.1%
all 291 -3.9% -13.1% 70% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 32% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 20% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,856) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$437 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$646
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses203 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage451d
Avg bet$1,686
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $504 −$497 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$72 -71%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$57 -56%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $752 −$23 -3%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $1,296 −$1,292 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 29 $3,463 −$1,158 -33%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Jun 28 $4,420 −$983 -22%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $2,998 +$435 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $101 −$3 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $75 +$240 +320%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $448 +$102 +23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1,003 +$120 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $4,006 +$190 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $2,430 +$305 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $2,513 +$535 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $755 −$750 -99%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $203 +$179 +88%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3,177 +$379 +12%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $455 +$247 +54%
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Jun 26 $871 +$257 +30%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $102 −$97 -95%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $2,004 +$144 +7%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $504 +$171 +34%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $692 −$685 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 26 $2,444 +$241 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $504 −$131 -26%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $212 +$143 +67%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2,598 +$126 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$60 -60%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,006 +$228 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $502 +$59 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,408 +$289 +12%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2,305 +$168 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,125 +$204 +10%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,800 +$111 +6%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,343 +$456 +34%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $503 +$138 +27%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $1,138 +$69 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $503 +$107 +21%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $971 +$59 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,908 −$4 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $678 −$678 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 26¢ $45 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 57¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 85¢ $728 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $752 16h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 90¢ $1,296 18h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL Yes 39¢ $894 19h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 20h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL No 54¢ $1,411 20h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY No 93¢ $1,313 21h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 100¢ $1,315 21h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY No 92¢ $1,133 21h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 76¢ $1,007 21h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 55¢ $2,122 22h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 87¢ $3,413 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 87¢ $2,998 24h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $95 2d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $101 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $101 2d
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 81¢ $448 2d
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 89¢ $1,003 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma SELL Ikram Aliskerov 100¢ $4,196 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 96¢ $3,004 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 93¢ $1,002 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.32 · official $99.32 (match) · 747 history records