Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a61…e6d8 sports 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$653 (+9%) realized +$706 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%155W / 137L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$175
14 days+$255
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$367
other 14% +$180
crypto 7% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -1.6% -10.9% 44% 37% +2.5%
≤30d 144 -13.3% -21.6% 42% 36% -13.2%
≤90d 292 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 48% -4.6%
all 292 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 48% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 48% -4.6%
10% -11.6% 45% -13.7%
15% -20.1% 37% -22.0%
20% -28.0% 28% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$706
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses155 / 137
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions2
Markets (closed)292 / 294
History coverage49d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals No 51¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $54 −$21 -40%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $29 −$26 -90%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$54 +109%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $19 +$44 +226%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$10 -63%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 +$121 +617%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 +$23 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 +$34 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $89 +$63 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$11 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$12 +119%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $37 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 +$12 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 +$9 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 +$22 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$35 +114%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$32 +650%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$22 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $32 31m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 40¢ $32 38m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 62¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 65¢ $43 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 5¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $29 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $10 7h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $44 7h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 30¢ $19 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $17 14h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $49 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 36¢ $5 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $38 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.83 · official $31.83 (match) · 879 history records