Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a5f…dc31 sports 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$11 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate68%98W / 47L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days+$295
14 days−$1,118
30 days−$2,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$648
sports 45% −$1,106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.0% +3.2% 92% 83% -4.4%
≤30d 42 -23.0% -30.4% 55% 52% -26.8%
≤90d 126 -6.0% -14.9% 64% 63% -13.2%
all 145 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 66% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 66% -10.3%
10% -20.2% 53% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 32% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$270 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses98 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage165d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 64¢ $309 $246 −$63 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $293 +$116 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$97 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $556 −$553 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $566 +$89 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $707 +$60 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $542 +$65 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $685 +$74 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $430 +$57 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $561 +$67 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $257 +$55 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $196 +$112 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $188 +$58 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $198 +$139 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $361 −$359 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $522 +$127 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $357 +$165 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $662 −$660 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $500 +$162 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $526 −$519 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $353 +$108 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$176 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $356 +$389 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $303 −$300 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $304 +$205 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $240 −$237 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $507 +$160 +32%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 29 $199 −$199 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 29 $162 −$162 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 29 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 29 $303 −$303 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 29 $304 −$304 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 29 $304 −$304 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 29 $203 +$145 +71%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $304 +$204 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $299 +$210 +70%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $303 +$158 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $303 +$119 +40%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $223 −$217 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $470 +$204 +43%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $389 +$178 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $303 −$11 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $806 +$97 +12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $300 +$107 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $311 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $408 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $293 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $556 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $655 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $566 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $707 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $542 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $685 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 88¢ $430 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $561 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $257 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $196 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $188 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $198 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $361 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $522 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $523 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $130 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $227 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $253 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $662 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $500 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $353 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.06 · official $246.06 (match) · 321 history records