Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a5f…90f8 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$4
other 7% −$11
crypto 2% −$8
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.2% -22.4% 36% 36% -12.2%
≤30d 25 -14.2% -22.4% 36% 36% -12.2%
≤90d 25 -14.2% -22.4% 36% 36% -12.2%
all 25 -14.2% -22.4% 36% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 36% -12.2%
10% -29.8% 32% -20.6%
15% -36.6% 12% -28.3%
20% -42.8% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 47¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$11 -50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 −$28 -47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$5 +22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$16 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$94 +649%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 11m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 27¢ $14 32m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $6 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $12 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $25 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.06 · official $20.06 (match) · 56 history records