Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a5e…3f64 sports 183 markets active 1d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%113W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$15
other 14% −$3
crypto 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.5% -6.3% 64% 64% -5.9%
≤30d 14 +3.5% -6.3% 64% 64% -5.9%
≤90d 182 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 62% -5.1%
all 182 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 62% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 62% -5.1%
10% -13.2% 53% -14.2%
15% -21.6% 45% -22.5%
20% -29.3% 36% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses113 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage75d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 53¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Savannah: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Jack Kennedy May 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Abidjan: Samir Hamza Reguig vs Oscar Weightman May 01 $1 +$1 +124%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $1 $0 +38%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1 $0 -17%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Alycia Parks vs Elina Avanesyan Apr 21 $1 $0 +21%
Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Veronika Erjavec Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jaime Faria Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Nuria Brancaccio Apr 20 $1 $0 +40%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 19 $1 $0 +48%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $1 $0 +36%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 19 $1 +$1 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 19 $1 +$1 +114%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$3 +300%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Busan: Pavel Kotov vs Leandro Riedi Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $1 $0 +31%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Anna Bondar vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 18 $1 $0 +17%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 18 $1 $0 +31%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 18 $1 $0 +44%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 17 $1 $0 +16%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 16 $1 $0 +36%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 14 $2 +$2 +87%
Sabres vs. Blackhawks Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 14 $3 −$2 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet BUY Leo Raquillet 40¢ $1 29h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 52¢ $1 29h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 84¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 89¢ $1 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 43¢ $1 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $1 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 82¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 59¢ $1 3d
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 62¢ $1 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $1 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $1 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 5d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 63¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 74¢ $1 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $1 6d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 65¢ $1 46d
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $1 58d
Abidjan: Samir Hamza Reguig vs Oscar Weightman BUY Samir Hamza Reguig 44¢ $1 58d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $1 58d
Savannah: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Jack Kennedy BUY Jack Kennedy 58¢ $1 59d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Ducks 64¢ $1 59d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 68¢ $1 59d
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners $0 59d
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 85¢ $1 59d
Senators vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 72¢ $1 59d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 81¢ $1 59d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Alycia Parks vs Elina Avanesyan BUY Alycia Parks 82¢ $1 60d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Anna Blinkova 71¢ $1 60d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jaime Faria BUY Quentin Halys 61¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.87 · official $1.87 (match) · 395 history records