Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a5b…1066 crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%74W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$25
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$12
other 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 32% -2.3%
≤30d 131 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 32% -9.3%
≤90d 131 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 32% -9.3%
all 131 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 32% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 32% -9.3%
10% -25.2% 20% -17.9%
15% -32.5% 13% -25.9%
20% -39.1% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses74 / 57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $38 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$8 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 436 history records