trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 23 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 74% | 0% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.6% | 0% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -22.8% | 0% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 0% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 0% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $27 | $27 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | Jun 24 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? | May 14 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 08 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? | Mar 10 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 11 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Dec 29 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Dec 02 | $10 | −$1 | -10% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 29 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | Nov 29 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 4? | Nov 05 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? | Nov 04 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 24? | Oct 28 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 21? | Oct 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 22? | Oct 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 14 | $6 | −$2 | -33% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 12? | Oct 14 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on October 11? | Oct 12 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 11 | $8 | −$1 | -17% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? | Oct 11 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 14 | $25 | −$1 | -4% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | May 13 | $5 | −$1 | -20% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Feb 12 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Was Trump hacked? | Jan 19 | $7 | $0 | +1% |