Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a59…5b52 crypto 585 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,000 (+4%) realized +$1,003 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate78%453W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day146.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$202
14 days−$567
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$506
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -14.1% -22.2% 64% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 584 -5.7% -14.7% 78% 2% -11.5%
≤90d 584 -5.7% -14.7% 78% 2% -11.5%
all 584 -5.7% -14.7% 78% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover146.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 2% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 1% -20.0%
15% -30.3% 1% -27.7%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$1,003
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses453 / 131
Open positions3
Markets (closed)584 / 585
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day146.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 49¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$15 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $22 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $22 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.21 · official $53.21 (match) · 3500 history records