trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +27.7% | +15.5% | 100% | 33% | +1.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 57% | 14% | -7.4% |
| all | 11 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 55% | 18% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 18% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 9% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 9% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 9% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $495 | $498 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $96 | $100 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $40 | $40 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? | Jun 15 | $74 | +$56 | +76% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $95 | +$5 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $392 | +$7 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | May 03 | $14 | −$13 | -94% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | May 02 | $281 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? | May 02 | $299 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Apr 09 | $389 | −$18 | -5% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Mar 11 | $1,050 | −$12 | -1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 23 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 23 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Dec 27 | $1 | $0 | -1% |