Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a57…0765 weather 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$30 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$29
world 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -11.9%
all 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.6% 0% -11.9%
10% -71.6% 0% -20.4%
15% -74.3% 0% -28.1%
20% -76.9% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? No 80¢ 54¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $100 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.88 · official $66.88 (match) · 5 history records