Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5A 0x5a54…519c politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate42%5W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$140per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$0

7 days−$0

14 days−$0

30 days−$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-11.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	11	-1.6%	-11.0%	45%	18%	-9.6%
all	12	-2.2%	-11.5%	42%	17%	-10.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.5%	17%	-10.6%
10%	-20.0%	0%	-19.1%
15%	-27.7%	0%	-26.9%
20%	-34.8%	0%	-34.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late -6% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage

Net worth$296

Realized−$1

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses5 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)12 / 15

History coverage140d

Avg bet$140

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	85¢	84¢	$127	$127	−$1 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	36¢	34¢	$126	$121	−$5 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	83¢	84¢	$48	$48	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Jun 19	$74	$0	-0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	May 20	$35	+$1	+4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	May 10	$102	−$10	-10%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	May 08	$62	+$4	+6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	May 08	$40	+$5	+11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	May 08	$120	−$56	-47%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	May 05	$211	−$6	-3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Apr 10	$120	−$3	-2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Apr 02	$200	+$15	+7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Mar 30	$299	+$51	+17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 27	$74	−$1	-1%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa	Mar 13	$206	−$17	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	84¢	$85	1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL No	75¢	$74	3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY Yes	36¢	$126	7d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	74¢	$74	7d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	86¢	$43	8d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	86¢	$221	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$37	30d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	83¢	$267	39d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	37¢	$92	40d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	24¢	$66	42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL No	88¢	$45	42d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL No	38¢	$64	42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY No	94¢	$35	45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY No	78¢	$40	45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	21¢	$62	45d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	45d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	80¢	$205	45d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	81¢	$211	69d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY No	70¢	$120	69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	SELL Yes	42¢	$117	69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY Yes	43¢	$120	78d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL No	88¢	$215	78d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY No	82¢	$200	81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL No	92¢	$351	81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY No	83¢	$149	84d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL No	73¢	$73	84d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	11¢	$21	84d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	74¢	$74	96d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	98d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY No	75¢	$150	98d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.72 · official $295.75 (match) · 124 history records