Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a52…f49e other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$967 (+1%) realized +$965 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,508per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$56
politics 40% −$70
sports 10% +$967
world 3% −$5
economics 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 +0.7% -8.8% 6% 3% -9.1%
all 94 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 11% -8.9%
10% -13.7% 10% -17.6%
15% -22.1% 10% -25.6%
20% -29.7% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,652) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$6 · ×19.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,066
Realized+$965
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage107d
Avg bet$1,508
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $691 $693 +$2 (+0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $374 $373 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,898 −$5 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4,278 −$6 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $943 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,557 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,911 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,842 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,096 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,553 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,038 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $2,824 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,758 −$3 -0%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1,350 +$179 +13%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,295 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $4,773 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,860 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3,824 −$4 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,272 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,220 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3,375 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $1,326 +$624 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $374 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $691 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,335 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,336 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,247 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,249 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,359 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,361 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,365 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,367 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,349 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,415 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,417 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,236 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,286 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,288 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,320 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,322 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,350 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,353 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 17d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,487 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,485 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,487 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $925 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $926 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,065.86 · official $1,065.86 (match) · 300 history records