Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a51…cfee crypto 361 markets active 3h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%130W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$385
crypto 36% −$365
other 4% −$123
finance 0% −$13
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -52.3% -56.8% 25% 25% -29.8%
≤30d 16 -54.0% -58.4% 25% 25% -50.7%
≤90d 158 -9.8% -18.4% 37% 35% -7.1%
all 361 -10.0% -18.5% 36% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 35% -14.7%
10% -26.3% 34% -22.8%
15% -33.5% 32% -30.3%
20% -40.0% 27% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$26 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses130 / 231
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage193d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions (162 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$11 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 20 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $25 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 20 $11 +$67 +632%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 19 $11 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 19 $11 +$49 +462%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 19 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 19 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 19 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 19 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 19 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $29 −$28 -96%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $51 +$79 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 18 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 18 $7 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 18 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 18 $26 +$41 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 18 $31 −$29 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 18 $25 +$4 +17%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $106 −$12 -12%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$5 -5%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 19 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Imperial Academy (BO3) - European Pro Leag Apr 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Apr 19 $45 +$82 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $37 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1055 history records