Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a44…5616 world 780 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$325 (-0%) realized −$339 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate85%636W / 115L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$103
14 days−$77
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1,999
crypto 24% −$93
other 16% −$806
sports 1% −$212
politics 1% +$46
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 80% 10% -15.8%
≤30d 107 +1.5% -8.2% 83% 21% -9.5%
≤90d 355 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 17% -10.0%
all 751 +4.1% -5.8% 85% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 12% -9.9%
10% -14.8% 6% -18.5%
15% -23.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -30.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$28 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses636 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions29
Markets (closed)751 / 780
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$170
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 68¢ 80¢ $136 $160 +$24 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 97¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+23%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 71¢ 67¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $23 $7 −$16 (-71%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 77¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 88¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 87¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 77¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $201 +$1 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $153 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $92 +$8 +9%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $60 −$35 -57%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $103 +$2 +2%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $45 +$2 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $36 −$10 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 18 $142 −$81 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $99 +$5 +5%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$8 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -83%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $263 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $151 −$4 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $41 +$9 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $336 +$9 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $65 −$22 -34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $42 +$7 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $396 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $461 +$18 +4%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $150 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 68¢ $138 17h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 20h
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 31h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 31h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 31h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 31h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 33h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 41h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 41h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $1 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $69 41h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $94 42h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $99 42h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $190 42h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $18 42h
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $27 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.74 · official $299.74 (match) · 3500 history records