Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a3d…d7d5 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$60 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$258
14 days−$145
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$180
world 25% −$255
crypto 19% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 38% -20.5%
≤30d 25 -2.9% -12.1% 48% 36% -14.0%
≤90d 25 -2.9% -12.1% 48% 36% -14.0%
all 25 -2.9% -12.1% 48% 36% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 36% -14.0%
10% -20.5% 32% -22.2%
15% -28.2% 24% -29.7%
20% -35.3% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$33 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage24d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 83¢ 84¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$82 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $50 +$21 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $197 +$74 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $203 −$6 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $600 −$249 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 15 $244 −$8 -3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $228 −$8 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 08 $348 +$125 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 05 $360 −$12 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $15 −$1 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 29 $357 −$12 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.64 · official $27.74 · 72 history records