Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a3c…0fd6 sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,273 (+2%) realized +$3,243 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%97W / 6L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,253per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$726
7 days+$2,119
14 days+$1,649
30 days+$3,127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,824
other 38% +$1,346
crypto 1% +$16
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.7% -6.2% 98% 7% -6.2%
≤30d 103 +2.0% -7.7% 94% 15% -7.3%
≤90d 103 +2.0% -7.7% 94% 15% -7.3%
all 103 +2.0% -7.7% 94% 15% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 15% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 4% -16.2%
15% -24.6% 2% -24.3%
20% -32.0% 1% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$714 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,925
Realized+$3,243
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses97 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,253
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Netherlands 98¢ 99¢ $1,464 $1,492 +$28 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Netherlands 100¢ 100¢ $1,272 $1,273 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Morocco 99¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,012 +$88 +9%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,860 +$30 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $403 +$83 +20%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 29 $1,382 +$18 +1%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,034 +$66 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $2,304 +$107 +5%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $1,705 +$180 +11%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 28 $508 +$5 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $937 +$2 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,235 +$65 +5%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 28 $1,540 +$38 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,101 +$45 +4%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 28 $2,544 +$49 +2%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,553 +$81 +5%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,006 +$14 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,033 +$78 +8%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,424 +$26 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 $0 +6%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 27 $2,429 +$22 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,475 +$63 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,079 +$44 +4%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,327 +$24 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,251 +$54 +4%
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Jun 26 $1,089 +$11 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-3.5) Jun 26 $2,317 +$23 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,287 +$146 +6%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 25 $2,251 +$34 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,200 +$166 +8%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,033 +$38 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,118 +$10 +1%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 24 $1,081 +$38 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $855 +$124 +14%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 24 $142 +$1 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,058 +$34 +3%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,089 +$71 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,986 +$104 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$30 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $909 +$48 +5%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 23 $991 +$12 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $24 −$3 -14%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,985 +$17 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,955 +$33 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,879 +$72 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,050 +$16 +1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $839 +$27 +3%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 22 $991 +$9 +1%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,925 +$19 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,757 +$169 +10%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,708 +$47 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,753 +$62 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 100¢ $1,272 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $69 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $209 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $355 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $197 2h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $81 2h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $267 2h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $285 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Morocco 99¢ $160 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $109 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $23 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $313 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $12 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $345 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $207 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $4 6h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $285 6h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $62 6h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $1,217 6h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $295 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $403 8h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $1,382 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Brazil 94¢ $1,034 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $2,304 27h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $501 28h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 88¢ $1,204 28h
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Canada 99¢ $12 32h
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Canada 99¢ $496 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $937 33h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $1,235 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,925.32 · official $2,925.37 (match) · 517 history records