Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a3c…d855 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
politics 31% −$8
sports 11% −$7
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 107 -2.1% -11.4% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage134d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $376 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $413 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $431 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $173 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $389 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $423 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $141 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $499 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $378 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $148 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $226 18d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $177 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $226 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $226 27d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 27d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 32d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 32d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $214 35d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $166 38d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $166 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 40d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 55d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $184 64d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $184 65d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $171 65d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $171 65d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $211 65d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $211 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.97 · official $50.97 (match) · 312 history records