Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a3b…bd3b crypto 1014 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$569 (-9%) realized −$561 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%340W / 654L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day90.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$217
14 days−$221
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$314
weather 21% −$332
other 19% −$245
sports 16% +$52
politics 5% −$31
world 5% −$41
tech 1% −$11
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$5
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -23.5% -30.7% 36% 17% -26.7%
≤30d 910 -22.7% -30.0% 34% 20% -25.0%
≤90d 994 -21.1% -28.6% 34% 21% -24.5%
all 994 -21.1% -28.6% 34% 21% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 21% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 19% -31.7%
15% -41.7% 18% -38.3%
20% -47.4% 16% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$561
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses340 / 654
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions20
Markets (closed)994 / 1014
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day90.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 994 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 41¢ 68¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+65%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? No 97¢ 97¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 98¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 +$4 +342%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$13 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -70%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $21 +$22 +102%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$14 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.70 · official $145.99 (match) · 3500 history records