Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a3b…6b7e other 271 markets active 1d ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-14%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%62W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$26
sports 19% −$20
crypto 2% −$4
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +11.9% +1.3% 10% 10% -5.5%
≤30d 105 -33.5% -39.8% 7% 7% -40.9%
≤90d 137 -10.7% -19.2% 15% 15% -18.2%
all 258 -9.9% -18.4% 24% 24% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 24% -24.2%
10% -26.2% 24% -31.5%
15% -33.4% 24% -38.1%
20% -39.9% 21% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses62 / 196
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)258 / 271
History coverage247d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +253%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 $0 -45%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -76%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$24 +2330%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +596%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -83%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 BUY 3¢ $1 27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 27¢ $1 38h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 BUY 3¢ $1 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 3¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 12¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 BUY 5¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY 5¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 12¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $3.21 (match) · 372 history records