Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a3b…957b weather 439 markets active 0h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,420 (+13%) realized +$8,189 · open +$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%249W / 179L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$640
7 days+$589
14 days+$736
30 days+$2,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$7,930
other 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 145 +2.3% -7.4% 69% 49% -0.9%
≤90d 336 +10.6% +0.0% 62% 45% +2.4%
all 428 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 41% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 41% +3.1%
10% -15.5% 26% -6.8%
15% -23.7% 19% -15.8%
20% -31.2% 14% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$48 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$2,286
Realized+$8,189
Unrealized+$231
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses249 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)428 / 439
History coverage253d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26? No 66¢ 72¢ $570 $619 +$49 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 26? No 88¢ 100¢ $468 $532 +$63 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 84¢ 96¢ $414 $470 +$56 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 26? No 86¢ 94¢ $357 $391 +$35 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $108 $125 +$17 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 26? No 43¢ 61¢ $63 $88 +$26 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 26? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $17 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on June 26? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $122 −$78 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 26 $80 −$47 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $90 +$15 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 26 $7 +$20 +271%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $90 +$20 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 26 $197 +$30 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 26 $75 +$62 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 26 $462 +$203 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25? Jun 26 $302 +$31 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 26 $376 +$41 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $111 +$19 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 26 $478 +$69 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25? Jun 26 $22 +$8 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 26 $189 +$59 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $52 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $40 +$37 +92%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 26 $127 +$47 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $468 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 25 $28 −$20 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$11 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 25 $229 −$109 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? Jun 25 $33 −$31 -92%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 25 $59 −$14 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $206 +$106 +51%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $56 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $75 +$15 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $39 +$17 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 25 $592 +$213 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 25 $39 −$29 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 25 $17 −$9 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $12 −$7 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $143 −$49 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $96 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $239 −$108 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $353 −$245 -69%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 24 $210 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $74 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 24 $23 +$12 +53%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $6 +$10 +158%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 24 $625 +$186 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $389 +$104 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 16¢ $44 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 54¢ $29 17m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 42¢ $4 17m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 37¢ $31 18m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $305 29m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $125 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 43¢ $14 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 47¢ $7 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 46¢ $27 29m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $41 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 46¢ $19 30m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 46¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 34¢ $20 30m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 36¢ $35 30m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? SELL No 32¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 64¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 67¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL No 57¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL No 60¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $235 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL No 47¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 48¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 43¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,285.57 · official $2,276.86 (match) · 2752 history records