Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a3a…7555 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-5%) realized −$219 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate91%31W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days−$189
14 days−$152
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$120
sports 10% +$15
politics 8% +$20
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 89% 25% -16.6%
≤30d 34 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 26% -14.1%
≤90d 34 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 26% -14.1%
all 34 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 26% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 26% -14.1%
10% -17.3% 9% -22.3%
15% -25.3% 6% -29.8%
20% -32.6% 6% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$109 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses31 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 0¢ 56¢ $0 $73 +$73 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $81 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $302 +$32 +10%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $265 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $130 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $130 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $130 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $108 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $134 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $80 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $302 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $315 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.88 · official $72.88 (match) · 99 history records