Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a39…8380 crypto 1340 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+1%) realized +$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%731W / 607L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day233.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$206
14 days+$227
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 958 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 54% -8.1%
≤30d 1338 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 55% -8.4%
≤90d 1338 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 55% -8.4%
all 1338 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 55% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 55% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 54% -17.2%
15% -30.8% 51% -25.2%
20% -37.6% 40% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses731 / 607
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1338 / 1340
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day233.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 56¢ 53¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$13 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$14 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$7 -78%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$17 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$11 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$15 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$20 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$15 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$20 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$19 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$26 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$29 +118%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $23 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.54 · official $8.54 (match) · 3500 history records