Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a37…2391 crypto 25 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-16%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$93
sports 24% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% -25.3%
≤30d 25 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% -25.3%
≤90d 25 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% -25.3%
all 25 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 56% -25.3%
10% -14.5% 56% -32.4%
15% -22.7% 48% -39.0%
20% -30.3% 40% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $94 +$28 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records