Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a37…a251 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$779 (-4%) realized −$779 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 37% −$68
crypto 22% −$423
politics 19% −$143
other 11% +$106
world 8% −$138
sports 3% −$199
tech 1% +$13
economics 0% −$42
weather 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.8% -1.5% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 10 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 40% -0.3%
≤90d 53 -18.7% -26.5% 38% 30% -10.9%
all 89 -16.5% -24.5% 38% 31% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 31% -13.7%
10% -31.7% 21% -22.0%
15% -38.3% 12% -29.5%
20% -44.4% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$36 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$779
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage380d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $121 −$10 -8%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $7 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $6 −$1 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $1,330 +$190 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 23 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $125 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 22 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $17 +$13 +74%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,427 −$153 -11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $408 −$19 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $303 −$40 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $61 −$12 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $138 +$13 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $152 −$44 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $144 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? May 12 $101 +$13 +12%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $195 +$57 +29%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $151 −$23 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $100 +$4 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 08 $239 −$13 -5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $81 −$57 -71%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $339 −$13 -4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $66 −$59 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $51 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 05 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 05 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $75 −$73 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 May 01 $93 +$11 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $98 −$5 -5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 06 $299 −$71 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 21 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $26 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $46 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $45 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 73¢ $32 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 96¢ $604 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $64 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $90 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $15 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL No 57¢ $27 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 62¢ $30 25d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 79¢ $499 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 80¢ $317 33d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 69¢ $303 33d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 96¢ $426 33d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $88 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records