Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a35…5732 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$357 (+0%) realized +$365 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%33W / 42L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,477per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,768
7 days+$4,579
14 days+$5,973
30 days+$7,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2,834
other 22% +$5,165
sports 13% −$2,002
politics 2% −$34
crypto 0% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.0% +11.3% 100% 100% +8.7%
≤30d 10 +23.9% +12.1% 100% 100% +10.6%
≤90d 47 +2.6% -7.1% 55% 36% -8.0%
all 75 -17.8% -25.6% 44% 29% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 29% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 19% -18.0%
15% -39.2% 9% -25.9%
20% -45.2% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$3,929) neutral
Persistence
early -51% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$464 vs −$380 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized+$365
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses33 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage169d
Avg bet$2,477
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,018 +$839 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,511 +$430 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,513 +$499 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,011 +$443 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,010 +$402 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6,165 +$868 +14%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4,533 +$771 +17%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5,007 +$1,394 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,929 +$1,075 +27%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $548 +$3,385 +618%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $2,755 −$2,755 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 14 $2,702 +$53 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $6,796 −$558 -8%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $1,020 −$712 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 08 $8,834 −$1,986 -22%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $4,389 +$117 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $4,249 +$140 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $3,873 +$377 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $17,337 −$731 -4%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 24 $6,080 −$370 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $515 −$240 -47%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $798 −$531 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $20,618 −$607 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $7,394 −$842 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $7,102 −$2,044 -29%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 17 $5,444 $0 +0%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,050 +$350 +33%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $4,489 +$1,023 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $4,523 −$34 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $635 +$776 +122%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $3,067 +$708 +23%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,566 −$661 -26%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $17,695 +$786 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $2,066 +$99 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 03 $37 −$30 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 03 $30 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $4,668 +$15 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +82%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 27 $5 −$3 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,012 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $2,018 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,511 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,513 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,011 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $4,656 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,509 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $355 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $213 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,955 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $217 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $854 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $512 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $213 7d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $212 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $6,401 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $178 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,510 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $286 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,195 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $249 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.67 · official $991.67 (match) · 378 history records