Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a33…7302 world 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized −$177 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%138W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$229
14 days+$244
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$63
crypto 31% −$229
other 17% +$36
sports 11% +$124
finance 4% −$22
politics 1% +$8
economics 0% −$5
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +37.6% +24.5% 76% 74% +21.4%
≤30d 119 +18.3% +7.0% 65% 62% +6.9%
≤90d 140 +9.5% -0.9% 61% 58% -5.1%
all 249 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 47% -12.0%
10% -18.5% 39% -20.4%
15% -26.4% 31% -28.1%
20% -33.6% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses138 / 111
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions27
Markets (closed)249 / 279
History coverage118d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 25¢ 68¢ $50 $134 +$85 (+170%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $60 $66 +$7 (+11%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $60 $28 −$32 (-53%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+81%)
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+237%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 35¢ 29¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 29 $21 +$7 +32%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$3 +34%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +85%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$18 +91%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 +$6 +124%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $10 +$10 +94%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +17%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 +$6 +109%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 +$11 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 +$13 +83%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 53m
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 55m
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 67¢ $15 2h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election SELL Yes 46¢ $25 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $35 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $3 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $20 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $13 7h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 10h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 13h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 13h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 16h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 16h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 25h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 28h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.94 · official $504.67 (match) · 788 history records