Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a31…a9da sports 10 markets active 8h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$129 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$46
other 9% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -8.2%
≤30d 8 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -8.2%
≤90d 8 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -8.2%
all 8 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 38% -8.2%
10% -38.8% 38% -16.9%
15% -44.7% 38% -25.0%
20% -50.1% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$108 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 56¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 33¢ $250 $137 −$112 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $203 +$241 +119%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $91 +$42 +46%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) Jun 27 $201 −$200 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $203 +$273 +134%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $62 −$60 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $264 7h
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $253 7h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $91 10h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 10h
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) BUY Liaoning Tieren FC 81¢ $201 10h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 27h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 27h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 54¢ $203 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.86 · official $426.95 · 13 history records