Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a31…d666 politics 130 markets active 4h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,277 (+1%) realized +$1,278 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,434per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days+$97
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$114
other 41% −$151
sports 4% +$1,594
tech 2% −$5
world 2% −$3
crypto 2% −$89
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +1.9% -7.8% 17% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 128 +2.2% -7.6% 12% 8% -8.9%
all 129 +2.2% -7.6% 12% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -8.9%
10% -16.4% 8% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 8% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,684) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$4 · ×26.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$1,278
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,434
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $392 $392 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,398 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,025 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,580 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,224 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,249 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,547 −$4 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,775 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $85 +$68 +79%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $2,854 −$4 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $85 +$79 +93%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $576 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $3,103 −$3 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,453 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $57 +$68 +119%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,563 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $37 +$42 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,638 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $45 +$41 +90%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $3,304 −$5 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $2,695 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $2,830 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 17 $1,680 +$2 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3,291 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,321 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,323 6h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,327 23h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,328 28h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,336 32h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,338 34h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,321 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,323 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $392 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,587 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,600 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,602 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,578 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,580 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,670 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,673 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,614 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,617 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,549 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,551 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,645 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,647 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,642 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,691 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,694 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,634 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,636 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,675 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.75 · official $391.75 (match) · 422 history records